News that Hershey of the US and Italy's Ferrero are examining bids for Cadbury hardly constitutes a Kinder Surprise. Cadbury is, after all, the last big opportunity for either chocolate maker to do a transformational deal. But, to the distress of Cadbury shareholders hoping for a more full-fat alternative to Kraft's cheeseparing bid, the likelihood of a Ferrero or Hershey offer – separately or jointly – remains slim.

Cadbury's attractions for both are self-evident. More than 85 per cent of Hershey's revenues come from the sluggish US market; Cadbury offers Hershey its best chance of building a sizeable business outside the Americas in one move. Ferrero has a successful empire of Ferrero Rocher, Kinder eggs and Nutella in continental Europe but has previously eschewed deals. Teaming up with Cadbury would create a European powerhouse with nicely complementary positions in Germany, Italy and France.

But the hurdles are dauntingly high. Hershey and Ferrero have powerful, conservative controlling shareholders – the Hershey School Trust and the octogenarian patriarch of the Ferrero family respectively. Both will be reluctant to lose control, even if Mr Ferrero's sons are pushing their father to do a deal. Neither company is big enough to launch a full Cadbury takeover bid alone. With revenues similar to Cadbury, the best Ferrero might hope for would be a merger of equals – unlikely to be tastier for Cadbury shareholders than Kraft's offer. Hershey, roughly half Cadbury's size, would have to leverage itself to a distinctly un-Hersheylike degree.