The course of disinflation never does run smooth. At the end of last year, futures markets had priced in six interest rate cuts for the US in 2024. My own expectations had also become quite optimistic. Yet now, after three successive quarters of stubbornly high inflation, US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell warns that it is likely to take “longer than expected” for inflation to return to the central bank’s 2 per cent target and justify cuts to interest rates. Market forecasts for rate cuts have duly been transformed. Some suggest they will be postponed to December, partly to avoid cuts before the presidential elections in November. Yet no similar rethinking has emerged in the eurozone: the first cut is still expected to be made in June.
降通脹的過程永遠不會一帆風順。去年年底，期貨市場曾預期美國在2024年將降息6次。我自己的預期之前也相當樂觀。然而現在，在通脹連續三個季度居高不下之后，美聯儲(Fed)主席杰伊?鮑威爾(Jay Powell)警告稱，通脹回到美聯儲2%的目標水平、從而有理由降息，可能需要“比預期更長的時間”。市場對降息的預測也相應發生了轉變。一些人認為降息將推遲到12月，部分原因是為了避免在11月總統選舉前降息。然而，歐元區并沒有出現類似的再思考：預計首次降息仍將在6月份進行。