When Tiffany is doing well, its luxury products and global presence make it tricky to use its results to draw conclusions about other US retailers. Those other US retailers better hope that the analogy remains tenuous.

In 2014, Tiffany shares rallied over 60 per cent. Strong results in the US and resilience in Asia and Europe led it to raise earnings guidance twice, despite the underlying weakness of the US consumer. But at the outset of fourth-quarter earnings season on Monday, the jewellery group said that holiday earnings were weak, and that 2015 was unlikely to sparkle — earnings growth may only reach mid-single digits. Investors in other US retailers may shrug, but plenty of other US companies may soon be cribbing the text of Tiffany’s warning.

Nearly half of Tiffany’s sales come from abroad — primarily in Asia, Japan (a separate segment), and Europe. Currency translation lowered sales growth in Japan and Europe by 13 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively. Stripping that out, sales in Europe were up a healthy 9 per cent while Japan was down 3 per cent. The recent rally in the dollar is expected to sting US multinationals as fourth-quarter results come out. One way to counteract dollar appreciation would be for Tiffany to raise international prices, but economic weakness may preclude that.