This week Shinzo Abe loosed the “third arrow” of his strategy to revive Japan’s economy. If you missed the resounding thwack as it triumphantly hit the target, that is because there was none. When it comes to structural reform, the Japanese prime minister is less like William Tell, splitting the apple asunder in one go. Instead, he more resembles an apprentice acupuncturist piercing the body politic with 1,000 needles in the hope that one or two might actually do the trick.
For those who have forgotten, the third arrow is meant to raise Japan’s potential growth rate. Because the workforce is shrinking by 0.5 per cent a year, nearly all growth must come from productivity gains. Something might also be done to make up the numbers by increasing levels of worker participation, particularly of women and pensioners, and (in theory) by bringing in more immigrants. Without action, Japan is doomed to an insipid growth rate of about 0.5-1 per cent.
Mr Abe’s third arrow – or “thousand trial needles”, as I prefer to call it – is meant to complement his monetary and fiscal policy. These two arrows have been fired with more aplomb and reasonable effect. A promise to double the monetary base and to hit an inflation target of 2 per cent in about two years has jolted prices into life. Core inflation in April (minus the effect of a consumption tax rise) was running at an increased rate of 1.5 per cent, albeit largely because of higher imported energy prices as a result of a weaker yen. Still, this month, Uniqlo, a Japanese clothing company famous for being cheap, is putting prices up across the board by 5 per cent, a possible talisman of growing corporate pricing power.