The US dollar is not a tide that lifts all boats. We saw that clearly earlier in April as an elevated US dollar, driven to a six-month high against a basket of other currencies by a repricing of US interest rates, exposed pockets of currency stress in Asia. The Japanese yen and Korean won dropped to historic lows, and other currencies, ranging from the euro to the renminbi, have tumbled since.This is not the highest the dollar has reached — it peaked higher in September 2022, when a surprise rate jump and Russia’s war in Ukraine spurred dollar demand. But unlike 2022, when investors flocked to the dollar amid a global tightening cycle, a stubbornly hot American economy now contrasts with a disinflationary global backdrop. With markets now betting that US interest rates will remain high while rates fall elsewhere, investors will choose the dollar to latch on to better returns and supercharged American growth. This threatens to create more upward pressure on the value of the dollar, with risks for the global economy.
美元并不是能夠將所有船都抬高的潮水。我們在4月早些時候清楚地看到了這一點：對美國利率預期的調整推動美元兌一籃子其他貨幣升至六個月高點，使亞洲的一些貨幣承壓。日元和韓元跌至歷史低點，而歐元和人民幣等其他貨幣自那以來也紛紛下跌。