There was no victory for Vladimir Putin to celebrate on Victory Day. Instead, the Russian leader is mired in a grinding, inconclusive and increasingly humiliating war.

Ahead of his big speech at the Red Square commemoration of victory in the second world war, the Russian president had three options — none of them good. He could start winding the war in Ukraine down, which would involve accepting that Russia had failed to achieve most of its objectives. He could attempt to rally the troops and the nation, but announce no major change of policy. Or he could escalate, in word or deed — perhaps by announcing a military mobilisation or hinting at the use of nuclear weapons.

In the event, Putin chose option two — which illustrates just how stuck he is. He has no quick path to victory. But defeat is unacceptable.