Bond and equity markets have been telling stories in recent weeks that were essentially irreconcilable. While stocks exuded relentless optimism, bond yields plummeted in a recession-obsessed nervous swoon. By last week, 10-year US Treasuries were offering yields well below that of three-month bills — an inversion of the normal yield curve that has historically been a good guide to the risk of a recession.
最近幾周，債券和股票市場講述著在本質上不可調和的故事。在股市彌漫著強烈樂觀情緒的同時，債券收益率卻在擔心衰退的恐慌氣氛中下挫。到上周，美國10年期國債收益率遠遠低于3個月國債，這意味著正常的收益率曲線出現反轉。從歷史上說，這是衰退風險的良好指引。
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