Since 2011, global trade growth has been stagnant. With protectionist sentiment intensifying in the US and Europe, and with China appearing to pivot away from export-oriented growth strategies, a hypothesis informally known as “peak trade” has become increasingly popular. According to this view, the past five years of stagnant trade growth is not temporary, but instead reflects fundamental changes to the global economy that will drive continued stagnation in global trade over the next decade and beyond.
全球貿易增長自2011年以來陷入停滯。隨著美國和歐洲的保護主義情緒升溫，以及中國似乎告別出口導向型的增長策略，一種被非正式稱為“貿易達到峰值”的假說日益流行起來。按照這種假說，過去5年貿易增長停滯并非是暫時的，而是反映出全球經濟基本面的改變，這些改變將推動今后十年甚至更久的全球貿易持續停滯。
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