The steady economic growth that Africa has enjoyed over the past decade is now waning. Global commodity prices, particularly oil, have weakened and China, Africa’s largest individual bilateral trading partner, has slowed considerably as it rebalances itself away from investment and growth. According to the IMF, a 1 percentage point decrease in China’s investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point decrease in Africa’s export growth rate. The depth of the China-Africa trade relationship explains why this month, the World Bank, in its annual Africa’s Pulse report, downgraded Africa’s growth projections from 4.6 per cent in 2014 to 3.7 per cent in 2015 – the lowest growth the region will have seen since the ripples of the global economic crisis hit it in 2009. A new period of slow growth demands new and creative responses from African leaders.
非洲過(guò)去十年享受的穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始減緩。全球大宗商品(尤其是石油)價(jià)格低迷,而中國(guó)這個(gè)非洲最大的單一雙邊貿(mào)易伙伴的經(jīng)濟(jì)大幅放緩——它正在轉(zhuǎn)型擺脫投資拉動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)的模式。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國(guó)投資增長(zhǎng)率每下降1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),非洲出口增長(zhǎng)率平均下降0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。中非密切的貿(mào)易關(guān)系解釋了,為何本月世界銀行(World Bank)在其《非洲脈搏》(Africa’s Pulse)年度報(bào)告中將非洲增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)從2014年的4.6%下調(diào)至2015年的3.7%——這是自2009年遭受全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)余波沖擊以來(lái),該地區(qū)將會(huì)出現(xiàn)的最低增長(zhǎng)率。非洲進(jìn)入新的緩慢增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期,這要求非洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人做出新的創(chuàng)造性回應(yīng)。