China’s economy isn’t headed for a hard or soft landing — instead, it’s more likely to be a long landing. That’s our perspective, based on our team’s recent visit to China to get an up-close look at the economic landscape.

The country’s economy clearly faces another few years of uncertainty and negative headlines, but we think the risks will be contained as long as the government sticks to its reform agenda. On our China trip, we assessed conditions in important cyclical sectors such as banking, basic industries and property.

Our takeaway: investors who think the government’s recent stimulus tweaks are a prelude to a more general nationwide stimulus — global financial crisis–style — are wide of the mark. In our view, the Chinese economy is actually in store for a long landing lasting two or three years. Commodity-related industries will face a painful readjustment, and some companies will default and may even collapse.