Foreign commentators and local bloggers regularly predict that China is heading for an economic and political crisis. But the country’s leaders are in strikingly confident mood. They believe that China can keep growing at more than 7 per cent a year for at least another decade. That would mean the country’s economy – already the second-largest in the world – would double in size. And, depending on the assumptions you make about US growth and exchange rates, it would probably mean that China becomes the world’s largest economy by 2020.
不論是外國評論員，還是中國本土博客作者，都經常預言中國將陷入經濟和政治危機。中國領導人卻是滿懷自信。他們相信，中國當前超過7%的經濟年增長率至少能夠再保持十年。這就意味著中國經濟規模將翻番，而目前中國已經是世界第二大經濟體。也就是說，到2020年，中國有望成為世界最大經濟體——這要看你怎么判斷美國經濟增長潛力和未來匯率情況。
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