Since the beginning of May, monetary policy has undergone a substantial tightening. This has taken the form of a rise in the yield on the bonds of highly rated governments. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose by 88 basis points between May 2 and the end of last week, to 2.51 per cent. This is a clear tightening of monetary conditions: a rise in these yields lead to rising borrowing costs for the private sector. It is, however, not clear that it is deliberate: longer-term bond yields are not an explicit target for monetary policy. Moreover, part of the reason for the jump in rates is rising confidence. But talk of “tapering” US quantitative easing is also a factor. It is hard to manage a policy whose effects depend on expectations. But it must be done better: this tightening is premature.
自今年5月初以來，貨幣政策經歷了大幅度收緊，這體現為高評級政府債券的收益率上升。從5月2日到上周末，美國10年期國債收益率上漲88個基點，至2.51%。這是貨幣收緊的明確跡象：這些國債收益率上漲，將導致私人部門借款成本上升。然而，目前尚不清楚的是，它是否符合當局的本意：畢竟，較長期債券的收益率并非明文規定的貨幣政策目標。此外，收益率飆升的部分原因是信心日益增強。但美聯儲有關“逐漸縮減”量化寬松的言論也是一個因素。管理一項效果取決于預期的政策很困難，但當局本能做得更好：這一收緊偏早了點。