The Federal Reserve’s governors are trying to tell investors something. But no one seems to be listening – except perhaps the foreign exchange market. Since the trade-weighted index for the US currency peaked in June last year, amid the Greek crisis, it has been a one-way downward bet, falling 15 per cent in spite of this year’s alarming geopolitical events. This was not about Uncle Sam’s deficits. After all, US Treasury 10-year yields have scarcely moved since last June, and remain historically low, while US equities barely underperformed stocks from the rest of the world.

Instead, the chief force driving the dollar down was the second round of the Fed’s quantitative easing bond purchase plan. Unique among central banks, it retains QE3 as an option. While the Fed took that stance, UBS suggests, any bad global news, from Libya to Japan, increased the chances of more bond purchases. That ensured that the dollar would be a disproportionate loser from any worsening of the global economy.

But in the past week, several Fed governors have talked up more hawkish options. James Bullard of the St Louis Fed has even floated the idea that the US central bank should not complete its full programme of QE2 bond purchases. While that is highly unlikely, there is evidently a move within the Fed to take QE3 off the table.