If America ruled the world, China would have a stronger currency, eliminate its trade surplus and generally become the engine of global demand.

Instead, the country last month racked up a $28.7bn trade surplus, its biggest in 18 months. The renminbi, ostensibly de-pegged in June, has subsequently appreciated a paltry 0.8 per cent against the dollar. Demand growth is not rising but faltering. Crude oil imports, a good index of production, slumped 18 per cent month-on-month.

There is likely to be worse to come. Real estate prices, hammered by a raft of speculation-curbing measures, are falling. Banks have yet to suffer from the bad debts which will follow an indiscriminate lending orgy ($1,400bn worth, or one-quarter of economic output, last year). Indeed, even exporters are not sacrosanct. July numbers may have been boosted by the impending end of some tax rebates and weak June industrial production data suggest some factories are being mothballed to grind down stockpiles.