On the face of it, China's next leadership succession was settled at a Communist Party congress in 2007. The party's senior members decided that in 2012-13, Xi Jinping would take over the roles as head of the party and president currently held by Hu Jintao, while Li Keqiang would become the next premier.

Although there have been some questions about the process since then – Mr Xi did not win an expected promotion last autumn to the commission that runs the military – most analysts believe the succession is still on track.

Yet even so, there is still a lot to play for. With little transparency or established procedures, these sorts of high-level decisions are never completely settled until the very last minute. More to the point, the succession is about much more than just the top two jobs. (In the CCP's hierarchy, Premier Wen Jiabao is actually number three.)