Things are not going to script. Shares of Rusal, the Russian aluminium giant, closed last week at 30 per cent below their January 27 debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange. That could be a blow to Hong Kong's hopes of attracting further Russian initial public offerings – just as it prepares to host an April investor shindig to drum up interest in Russian opportunities. Oleg Deripaska, Rusal's biggest shareholder, is still considering floating his En+ Power business on the same market. Rusal's woes may also reflect specific concerns over its debt and outlook rather than a lack of Asian appetite for Russian shares. But the idea Russian issuers would desert London and head east en masse was always far-fetched.

Hong Kong is, of course, well placed to link Russian resource companies, in particular, with investors from a country clamouring for their output. Viktor Vekselberg, a Rusal co-investor, calls Hong Kong a natural place to float his Kamchatka Gold venture in Russia's far east. There are geopolitical considerations too. State-owned Russian Railways, keen to develop the Trans-Siberian as a freight artery linking China and Europe, hints it may choose Hong Kong to list a cargo subsidiary. Russian tycoons may see Hong Kong regulators as a soft touch after they tore up their own rulebook by allowing risk-laden Rusal to list, but making the offer institutions-only.

Yet other big resource groups, including Metalloinvest, a mining group, and Suek, a Siberian coal miner, are targeting London. So is Vladimir Potanin's ProfMedia. London has the established investor base, less volatility, and appeals to Russians culturally and geographically. Returning after a two-year break, however, Russian equity issuers will no longer find London a sellers' market. Uralsib estimates heavily indebted Russian companies need to raise a hefty $55bn in 2010-11 – giving investors substantial bargaining power. To avoid further Rusal-style debacles, they should use it.