Japan is a cautionary tale for anyone with an eye for green shoots. At least twice in its “l(fā)ost decade”, fleeting signs of recovery yielded to the reality that the economy had not yet overcome a crisis emanating from its burst bubble at the start of the 1990s. Twenty years later and even the seemingly verdant foliage resulting from six years of growth between 2002 and 2008 has shrivelled to nothing. The shockwaves from a crisis this time manufactured in the US will scythe some 6 per cent off output.
任何認為經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)復蘇萌芽的人，都應以日本為戒。在“失去的十年”中，日本至少兩次經(jīng)歷過類似情況：即短暫的復蘇跡象屈服于經(jīng)濟仍未擺脫危機的現(xiàn)實——那次危機源于上世紀90年代初泡沫的破滅。20年過去了，即使是2002年至2008年日本6年經(jīng)濟增長所催生的、看似郁郁蔥蔥的枝葉，也歸于枯萎、無果而終。此次源于美國的危機所造成的沖擊，將使產(chǎn)出萎縮約6%。
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