The logic for selling now, as lock-up periods expire, is compelling. In all, foreign banks spent about $9bn accumulating stakes during the privatisation of China's big three lenders three years ago. Although the Hong Kong-listed shares have fallen sharply from their 2007 peaks, strategic investors are still comfortably in the money. Shares in Bank of China, which are below the initial public offering price, would still yield a gain of about $1.3bn for RBS based on Wednesday's close. Chinese bank prices have further to fall as decelerating economic growth hits loan books. Lending is likely to expand at a less hectic pace, while asset deterioration will inevitably rise. Big government bond holdings means that interest rate cuts, some of which reduce net interest margins, also pummel treasury returns.
隨著鎖定期的結束，現在就出售股份的邏輯相當充足。三年前中國三大銀行私有化期間，外國銀行總共投入大約90億美元購得戰略股份。盡管這些在香港上市的股票已從其2007年巔峰水平大幅下跌，但各家戰略投資者仍頗有斬獲。中國銀行的股價雖低于首次公開發行價，但根據周三收盤價格，蘇格蘭皇家銀行仍能得到大約13億美元的資本增值。隨著經濟增長形勢惡化打擊貸款賬目，中國各銀行的股價還有進一步下跌空間。放貸很可能以不那么狂熱的節奏擴大，同時資產惡化將不可避免地加劇。龐大的國債持有量意味著，減息（其中一部分將削減凈利差）也將打擊國債回報。