Beijing is too savvy – and interventionist – to allow that to happen. First of, rules drafted in 2006 are couched around with enough caveats to ensure only the most determined short sellers make it through the net. Stock can only be borrowed from a small clutch of brokers, a group not renowned for holding huge quantities of shares. Not all shares can be shorted. Worse, according to local brokers, only certain categories of investors will be able to short. This could exclude domestic mutual funds and the handful of foreign investors able to buy “A” shares. And should the whole experiment go horribly wrong, there can be little doubt that Beijing will nix it overnight. These are the regulators, after all, who increased stamp duty and equity issuance as the stock market bubble inflated, and took reverse steps once it burst.
中國官方是不會允許發生這種情況的，因為它一來聰明得很，二來還不惜動用干預手段。首先，2006年草擬的規則含有多項限制條款，意味著只有一些特定的賣空者才能進行賣空操作。只有一小批券商能夠借出用于賣空的股票，而這些券商并不以持有大量股票而著稱。也不是所有股票都能賣空。更糟的是，根據中國國內券商的說法，只有某些類別的投資者才能進行賣空操作。這一限制可能把國內共同基金和一小批能夠買入A股的外國投資者拒之門外。再者，如果試點下來的情況很糟糕，北京無疑將在一夜之間叫停賣空操作。畢竟，中國監管機構在股市泡沫充氣階段提高印花稅和股票發行量，在泡沫破滅后又采取相反步驟。