For many prudent investors, buying US equities now might seem like courting disaster. Sticker prices have been slashed but, like marked-down milk, that itself is a reason to worry more, not less.

The 20 per cent drawdown in stocks this year is still far from the 30-35 per cent crashes that have typified past bear markets. With recession looming, many worry it is only the beginning. That bearish consensus, combined with very high uncertainty, makes markets feel perilous.

But times like this are when it pays most to keep level-headed. While a recession looks likely, the economy is undergoing historic shocks with unpredictable effects — and markets are along for the ride. If inflation abates, so could recession fears, bolstering the case for buying for the recovery.