Right now, two big questions are haunting watchers of the US Federal Reserve: will the Fed cut interest rates next week? And will President Donald Trump name Kevin Hassett, his economic adviser, as its next chair?
On the first issue, “yes” seems the likely answer, even though inflation exceeds the Fed’s 2 per cent target. And on the second? The prediction market Kalshi gives Hassett a 74 per cent chance of victory — never mind financiers’ reservations.
But as those two debates bubble, there is a third issue that should be considered too: do Fed officials even know how they should tackle inflation in the first place?
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