From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to worsening US-China relations, geopolitical disruptions were at the forefront of bankers’ minds at the start of the second quarter of this year.

James Gorman, Morgan Stanley’s chief executive, told analysts in April that “geopolitical risks” ranked as one of the “wild cards out there, which we can’t really handicap”. In the same week, Jane Fraser, chief executive of Citigroup, warned on an earnings call: “We have to keep a close eye on geopolitics as the US-China relationship becomes increasingly strained and is fragmenting economic blocs.” Colm Kelleher, chair of UBS, also in April, labelled the war in Ukraine as “a stark reminder of how fragile our world is”, and lamented the “general rise in geopolitical tensions”.

To investors, those comments may sound like a cause for caution but, to a growing pack of consultants, they are also a business model validation. Firms including Lazard, Ankura, Kissinger Associates, Eurasia Group, Teneo’s WestExec Advisors, and The Cohen Group are all now pitching geopolitical risk-evaluation services — in a variety of forms and fee structures — to financial services executives.