Civilisations are not murdered, said the historian Arnold Toynbee. They die from suicide. Though military clout and geographic fortune will sustain America, its republic is flirting with Toynbee’s script. No external threat or domestic cost benefit appraisal would lead a Martian to believe Earth’s greatest power should be in meltdown by its own hand. Whether in China or Canada, or indeed the US, human observers are in disbelief. The speed of America’s turn on itself is historic. 

Donald Trump was sworn in ten weeks ago. He inherited an economy with stable inflation and dropping interest rates but with growth still projected to outstrip any big competitor this year. With each fresh Trump salvo on the global economy, US growth forecasts are cut. Assuming he will supply more fuel for downward revisions — most likely with his “liberation day” of reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world — America seems bound for recession later this year. This would be a recession of choice; Trump’s choice. 

But that is the trivial part. Negative growth would be a mere offshoot of a more troubling assault on the US experiment. What differentiates it from earlier emergencies is the lack of serious resistance. The 1861-1865 civil war was a bloody fight to the death. But the anti-slavery union cause was righteously impassioned. America’s 1941 response to Pearl Harbor awoke an isolationist nation. The US made up in single-mindedness what it had missed in foresight.