The writer is author of ‘Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine’?and the Substack ‘Comment is Freed’

The first half of 2023 was dominated by speculation about when and how Ukraine would launch its big offensive to liberate Russian-held territory. Fresh battalions were being trained and equipped for the push. The most likely objective — driving through Russian defences towards the Black Sea — was widely discussed. The only uncertainty was timing. When the offensive kicked off in June 2023, there was therefore precious little surprise. Russian defences were well prepared. The Ukrainian army lacked the kit, training, air support and command structures to achieve a major breakthrough.

From late last year, Russia went on its own offensive, helped by Kyiv’s delays in mobilising more troops and congressional blocks on more support to Ukraine. The Russians battered Ukraine’s defensive lines with deadly glide bombs and assaults from apparently inexhaustible supplies of expendable infantry. Russia suffered enormous losses in men and equipment, but with its economy now geared to war and new recruits to fill the gaps, it pressed on, slowly pushing back the outgunned, outmanned Ukrainians and taking ruined towns and villages.