The writer is a former global head of research at Morgan Stanley and former group head of research, data and analytics at UBS Sir Isaac Newton lost a fortune betting on the South Sea Company. Perhaps he did not take into account the “precautionary principle”. If you don’t understand something, even if others seem excited about it, it’s better to do something else or wait until you do get it.

This principle should perhaps be borne in mind by investors and investment banks as artificial intelligence is developed for market and financial research. It could create a lot of noise.

Much has been written about shrinking “sell-side” research by investment banks. Even more about the troubles of active portfolio management. Blame regulation or passive funds, but the struggle to add value increases when uncertainty rises — for example, as a result of geopolitics or products such as Ozempic or Tesla that radically change the competitive landscape. At such times, the market whipsaws, with swings driven by a diffusion of views. This could be made much worse or better by the democratisation of generative AI.