Last week I took part in an American TV chat show with Yuval Noah Harari, the Israeli professor and author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. During the conversation the host, Bill Maher, lamented that a “slate of election deniers” are running for seats in next week’s US midterms. Harari winced, and solemnly suggested that American democracy is now so troubled that “the next presidential election could be the last democratic election in US history”. He added: “It is not a high chance, but it could be the case.”

Maher let the comment slide. So did I. But as I left the set later that night, I felt shocked. A few short years ago, it would have been hard to imagine someone suggesting on mainstream television that America’s electoral system might be doomed.

Harari is no firebrand. He is an erudite and thoughtful historian. The most startling aspect of the moment was that it did not seem so shocking at all. Predicting the death of American democracy has become almost normal.