Disruption is everywhere in the global economy. Russia’s war in Ukraine — and sweeping western sanctions on Moscow — has wrecked havoc in commodity markets. The prospects for co-operation over addressing these supply problems look limited. The turmoil is contributing to rising inflation, which is at levels unseen in a generation. Such strains in the real economy have raised questions over whether the monetary order based on the US dollar can remain unaffected.

Some change may be inevitable, but prevailing trust in the greenback will not be easily displaced. For now, the US dollar’s status as the leading global reserve currency is assured. It still makes up a majority of foreign exchange reserves and dominates trade invoicing. US Treasuries are the safe asset of choice for global markets, while the country’s institutions are still trusted and adept at managing crisis.

If threats to the dollar do emerge, they are unlikely to come from central banks diversifying some of their reserves away from US dollars, towards smaller, western currencies. This trend has been held up as evidence that the need to hold US dollars is fading as technology has made direct transfers between smaller currencies possible in ways that remove the need for the dollar to act as gatekeeper.