In politics, as in life, there is rarely such a thing as a single moment of truth. Cumulatively decisive series of events are the prosaic norm. Even so, the US’s 2022 midterm congressional elections are likely to come close to being an exception.

If, as polls indicate, Democrats lose control of Congress in November, President Joe Biden will face a profound reckoning. Republicans have made clear that they will use their regained power to stop his agenda in its tracks. But they will be tempted to go much further.

Egged on by Donald Trump, the previous president, conservatives plan to tie up Biden’s White House in investigations. They could go as far as launching an impeachment process against Biden in tit-for-tat retaliation for the two ultimately fruitless Democratic moves against Trump in 2019 and 2021. The stage would be set for an existential Biden-Trump rematch in the 2024 election.