The writer is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center

The simultaneous energy crunch in Europe and China — the two biggest markets for Russian hydrocarbons — has provided Moscow with an opportunity to lock in a lucrative new gas deal with Beijing. The arrangement will enable Russia to sell gas to China from the same fields that supply its European customers. This poses a challenge for EU energy security. Yet over time, a growing reliance on the Chinese market will create challenges for the Kremlin, too, if it wants to avoid a one-sided dependence on Beijing.

With gas prices going through the roof in Europe, the Kremlin has once again demonstrated how much leverage it has on the European energy market. This remains true despite temporary setbacks for Moscow such as this week’s decision by the German energy regulator to suspend certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Berlin’s move immediately drove up gas prices in Europe by 15 per cent.