The writer is an English statistician and epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Four years ago, an international committee convened by the US National Academy of Medicine warned of the global threat of a new virus. It identified the threat potential of new coronaviruses and highlighted the relatively trivial costs of preventing pandemics — especially compared to, say, spending on defence or financial stability.
Since then, Covid-19 has amply demonstrated the catastrophic effects of a virus with relatively low mortality rates. The next virus may be far more deadly. A method that achieved rapid and effective control of today’s pandemic would also provide the framework for dealing with the next one. But how?
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