Is the US drowning in drug abuse? If you asked most ordinary American voters that question, the answer would probably be “yes”. After all, the past few years have delivered a stream of headlines about the tragic effects of the opioid epidemic, with about 130 Americans dying every day from opioid-related overdoses in 2018 and 2019.

President Donald Trump often rails against the scourge of substance abuse but tends to blame it on imports from places such as Mexico or China. Last month, though, America’s Bureau of Economic Analysis — the branch of government that assembles official data — jumped into the fray. And its conclusions about drug trends might take some observers by surprise.

First, a little background. Until fairly recently, government statisticians assumed their job was to record observable legal economic activity (such as factory output). However, the IMF has long urged them to widen the lens. Since 2014, EU member states have been encouraged by Eurostat, the official statistics body, to include some illegal activities — from prostitution to drug trafficking and tobacco smuggling — in their GDP.