The severity of the collapse in markets late last year was quite surprising, given that global gross domestic product continued to grow very close to trend in the fourth quarter. Many global markets, including the major risk assets, the yield curve and credit spreads, are now pricing a probability of recession of at least 50 per cent within 12 months.
考慮到全球國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)在第四季度繼續(xù)以非常接近趨勢(shì)水平的速度增長(zhǎng)，去年末市場(chǎng)崩盤(pán)的嚴(yán)重程度相當(dāng)令人吃驚。全球許多市場(chǎng)——包括主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)、收益率曲線和信貸息差——當(dāng)前的定價(jià)隱含的假設(shè)是，未來(lái)12個(gè)月內(nèi)發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性至少為50%。
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