As leaders of the G20 nations converge on Hamburg for their annual meeting, two of the world’s biggest economies are poised to prove that globalisation is not dead, and that populist antipathy to free trade has not yet triumphed.

After several negotiating breakthroughs on the sticky questions of cheese and car parts, Japan and the EU are expected to sign a sweeping trade agreement on the eve of the summit on Friday. If they manage it in time, the FTA will stand as a powerful rejection of Donald Trump’s protectionist posture, just as the US president arrives in Germany for the summit. It will also highlight the challenge facing Britain. A hard Brexit would leave UK companies in some sectors on worse trade terms with their neighbour Europe than Japanese competitors halfway around the world.

European officials have let expectations run high, and will be embarrassed if the deal is not concluded this week. But even if it is not, it is highly likely to be signed soon. In Brussels, an agreement with the fourth-largest import market in the world will reaffirm the relevance of the European Commission. It will also provide a boon for European farmers, cheese-makers and vintners at a time when rural communities on the continent are being courted by populist forces.