As China gears up for a high-level leadership transition at its party congress in November, stability has become the main watchword in Beijing, dictating everything from economic policies to reform efforts.

Minimising volatility from economic liberalisation is seen as important for a smooth political transition. As they jockey for promotions, even reform-minded officials are loath to take risks, partly to avoid creating enemies at a time when they need every ally they can corral.

Paradoxically, by trying to enforce stability through tighter control and limited reforms, the government is raising the risk of longer-term economic instability. It is a good bet that China’s gross domestic product growth will come in like clockwork in the government’s target range of about 6.5 per cent over the next 12 months.