Three decades ago, Ronald Reagan declared “Morning in America” after years of economic turmoil. His timing was perfect. Several years of boom ensued. No one today would dare muse about the US being a “shining city on the hill”. There have been too many false dawns since 2008 for that. Yet a corner has been turned. The recovery under Barack Obama has been painfully slow by postwar standards, but it is fast compared to most of the rest of the world. There is also more to come in 2015. The US should enjoy the afternoon sunshine while it lasts.
Most of America’s good news is relative. The US is estimated to have grown last year by 2.6 per cent — roughly half a percentage point higher than the previous five years of recovery. This was weak compared to all previous US recoveries barring the first business cycle of the 21st century. But it looks stellar compared to the eurozone, which barely cleared 1 per cent. This coming year is likely to be very similar. The US will grow by around 3 per cent while the Europeans and Japan would be lucky to exceed 1 per cent.
Moreover, US unemployment is falling more rapidly than it has in years. With almost 3m jobs created, 2014 was the best year for the US labour market since 1999 — the height of Bill Clinton’s boom. At 5.8 per cent, the US jobless rate is almost half the rate of the eurozone. Most of America’s new jobs may be casualised and poorly paid. But they are jobs nonetheless. By contrast, countries such as Italy, France and Spain are unable to generate jobs of any description. A whole generation of Europeans is withering on the vine.