There could not have been more brutal testimony to the cynicism of Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine than the television mages beamed from the crash site of MH17. Sight of balaclava-wearing paramilitaries barring access to the downed Malaysian aircraft and the charred remains of its passengers and crew must have made even some in the Kremlin blanch.

The accumulating evidence points to a Russian-made ground-to-air missile fired from territory held by Russian separatists. Western intelligence agencies think, but probably will not be able to prove, that the missile battery was under the control of Russian military personnel.

This was not how Moscow had planned things. In the weeks before the downing of MH17 military analysts at NATO had noticed a steady build up of Russian military forces near the Ukrainian border. By the time the aircraft was blown from the sky, senior alliance figures had calculated that Moscow had plans and forces in place to mount a full-scale invasion of the region now held by the separatists. The question was when?