Not long ago it became fashionable to liken India to a tortoise, poised, by virtue of its democratic institutions and favourable demographics, to overtake the Chinese hare. Now there is a better comparison. More and more, it resembles a deer caught in the headlights.
To be fair, the headlights are dazzling and the deer has few places to run. Like emerging market economies everywhere, India is suffering from the prospect of a gradual withdrawal of stimulus by the US Federal Reserve and a rise in American interest rates. That has produced a giant sucking sound as risk capital retreats. The hot money outflow, though, is just the start of India’s problems. Growth has almost halved from a few years ago to 5 per cent, unacceptably low for a country with such potential and so much poverty. The current account and budget deficits are troublingly wide and the rupee has been dropping like a stone. Sotto voce, officials have been mouthing three of the scariest words known to humanity: International Monetary Fund.
For weeks the government has been piling on measure after measure to stop the rot. The rot is unimpressed. India has three times raised tariffs on the import of gold. It has imposed capital controls on Indian individuals and companies wishing to send money abroad. Yesterday the Reserve Bank of India injected liquidity into financial markets, partially reversing previous tightening. Rather than soothing the nerves, these stop-start measures have had the whiff of panic. Investors have pulled out funds and the rupee has continued its slide.