Emergent economies and urbanisation

The rise of the emerging markets has profoundly changed the global economy over the past 20 years, writes Stefan Wagstyl. Led by China, emerging nations have increased their share of world output from 37 per cent in 2000 to more than 50 per cent; their role in trade from 20 per cent to nearly 40 per cent, and their share of global stock market capitalisation from less than 5 per cent to 15 per cent.

This trend has both fed off and stimulated another world-changing trend – urbanisation. Half of the world’s population now lives in cities, with increasing industrialisation raising the pace to take that figure to an expected 70 per cent by 2030. Last year, the emerging economies grew at an average 5.1 per cent; 7.8 per cent in China’s case. The developed world managed just 1.2 per cent. For 2013, the International Monetary Fund expects 5.9 per cent for emerging states, against 1.2 per cent for the rich countries.