Remember the “Goldilocks economy”? As stocks rallied during the dotcom boom of the 1990s and the credit boom a decade later, pundits turned to fairy tales for an explanation. Things were “not too hot” to force central banks to raise interest rates, but “not too cold” to rid the corporate sector of profit growth.
Welcome to the sequel – though perhaps this time it should be called Goldilocks on Ice. The economy remains cold. Chilly enough for the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to continue with measures to support asset prices; but not so freezing that the economy lapses into crisis again. While this combination persists, there is nowhere for asset prices to go but upwards.
In recent weeks, this mixture has helped drive an impressive market rally. Major indices are within touching distance of their pre-crisis highs. This has sparked hopes that the “crisis” for markets is at last over. After years when all buying and selling decisions have come down to a bet on the shifting odds that the world economy slides into another crisis, the hope now is that risks of disaster can finally be ignored. This implies that the economy can grow, and that relatively risky assets such as stocks and commodities can enjoy a new and sustained “bull market”.