The acute phase of the crisis is clearly over – for now. There are some signs of a normalisation in the inter-banking market. Sovereign spreads have come down. Italy and Spain will both manage to fund their fiscal deficits until next year. The European Central Bank’s longer-term refinancing operations have propped up the banks. The new Outright Monetary Transactions programme, if it is ever activated, will prop up the sovereigns. If you thought of the lethal interaction between banks and sovereign as two drunks in a pub propping each other up, the ECB has given them separate crutches. They can walk. Does this mean that the crisis is over?
此次危機(jī)的急性發(fā)作階段顯然已經(jīng)過去——就目前而言是如此。一些跡象表明，銀行間市場(chǎng)已趨于正常。主權(quán)債務(wù)息差已縮窄。從現(xiàn)在到明年，意大利和西班牙都會(huì)成功為財(cái)政赤字融資。歐洲央行(ECB)的較長(zhǎng)期再融資操作已經(jīng)起到扶持銀行的作用。新的直接貨幣交易(Outright Monetary Transactions, OMT)計(jì)劃若得到啟用，將扶持相關(guān)主權(quán)國(guó)家政府。如果你把銀行與主權(quán)國(guó)家之間的致命聯(lián)系想成兩個(gè)在酒吧里相互攙扶的醉漢，那么現(xiàn)在歐洲央行給了他們一人一根拐杖。他們能走了。但這是否意味著這場(chǎng)危機(jī)已結(jié)束？