The recent assessment of China’s financial stability by the International Monetary Fund highlights increasing vulnerabilities stemming from the government’s role in the lending process, and an inflexible interest rate policy. Those who regard weaknesses in the banking sector as a likely trigger for a financial collapse have railed against China’s negative real interest rates and the speculative activity this has spawned. They see the heavy reliance on credit expansion to stimulate the economy during the global financial crises as eventually leading to a surge in non-performing loans. All this is viewed as part of a strategy of financial repression that postpones the day when China’s big four state banks can operate as real commercial banks.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最近對中國金融穩定性的評估突顯出，中國政府在信貸過程中扮演的角色和不靈活的利率政策，正日益帶來風險。那些認為銀行部門的缺陷有可能引發金融崩盤的人，對中國的實際負利率和由之帶來的大量投機活動提出了嚴厲指責。他們認為，在全球金融危機期間高度依賴信貸擴張來刺激經濟的做法，最終會導致不良貸款的飆升。所有這些，都被看作金融壓制戰略的一部分，推遲了中國四大國有銀行成為真正的商業銀行那一天的到來。