The current turmoil in the eurozone bonds markets shows striking parallels to the situation in autumn 2008. Then, bank depositors had lost confidence in the stability of the institutions holding their assets, and the threat of a bank-run could only be avoided by comprehensive government guarantees for all banks. Today, we are observing a bond-run: a self-fulfilling crisis of confidence in the stability of most eurozone sovereign borrowers. This is driving long-term rates up, so that for more and more countries a temporary liquidity problem is becoming a permanent solvency problem. As regulators still treat government bonds as the safe core of the financial system, this vicious circle threatens the stability of financial institutions not only in the eurozone but also in the rest of the world. It intensifies the recessionary tendencies in the global economy so that in turn the financial situation of governments becomes worse. It’s a perfect vicious circle.
歐元區(qū)債券市場當(dāng)前的混亂局面，與2008年秋季的情形極為相似。當(dāng)時，儲戶們對持有其資產(chǎn)的銀行的穩(wěn)定性喪失了信心，只有政府為所有銀行提供全面擔(dān)保，才能避免銀行擠兌風(fēng)險。如今，我們正面臨一場債券擠兌風(fēng)潮：這是一場“自我實現(xiàn)”的信心危機——人們對大多數(shù)歐元區(qū)主權(quán)債務(wù)國的穩(wěn)定性失去了信心。這種情況正導(dǎo)致長期收益率上揚，于是在越來越多的國家，暫時的流動性問題正變成一種永久性的償付能力問題。由于監(jiān)管者仍將政府債券當(dāng)成金融體系的安全核心，這種惡性循環(huán)不僅危及歐元區(qū)金融機構(gòu)的穩(wěn)定，也威脅著世界其它地區(qū)的金融機構(gòu)。它加劇了全球經(jīng)濟的衰退傾向，這反過來又導(dǎo)致政府的財政狀況惡化。這是一個“完美的”惡性循環(huán)。