In Moscow, the speculation about Russia’s next president is becoming tedious. Dmitry Medvedev has made it clear he would like to run again, but most people think Vladimir Putin, prime minister, will be the official candidate and win March’s election.

But does it matter whether President Medvedev continues, Mr Putin returns or someone else takes over? The short answer is no. Mr Medvedev seems to have a little influence on aspects of economic and foreign policy, but everyone knows who is in charge. Whatever post Mr Putin holds after the election, he will remain the dominant figure.

The next president is unlikely to allow a more pluralistic political system, significantly strengthen the rule of law or tackle corruption. Nor is he likely to steer the economy away from dependency on natural resource exports, so that manufacturing and services play