China’s tight liquidity just got a little tighter. At the end of May, Goldman Sachs’ financial conditions index – a blend of interbank rates, single-A corporate bond yields, the trade-weighted currency, and equities – was nudging the same levels as August 2008, consistent with a determined tightening. Since then, a surge in short-dated interbank rates above longer-maturity contracts has been accompanied by confirmation of a slump in renminbi loan growth, down almost a fifth in May, year-on-year. Just when the nation seemed to be crying out for a little liquidity relief, then, the People’s Bank obliged on Wednesday with a quarter-point increase in one-year interest rates, effective on Thursday.
中國本來就偏緊的流動性現在更緊了一點。5月底，高盛(Goldman Sachs)金融狀況指數(Financial Conditions Index)——對銀行間同業拆放利率、A級企業債券收益率、貿易加權匯率以及股票價格的綜合衡量——趨近2008年8月的水平，這與堅定的收緊政策吻合。自那以來，短期銀行間同業利率飆升，高于期限更長的合約，同時人民幣貸款增長大幅趨緩，5月份同比下降近五分之一。就在全國上下似乎在呼喚流動性的時候，中國央行周三宣布將一年期利率上調25個基點，從周四起執行。