Aditya Mittal deserves a little professional sympathy. The son of Lakshmi Mittal, chairman and controlling shareholder of ArcelorMittal, is chief financial officer of the world’s largest steelmaker. As of Tuesday, however, he is also the head of the group’s largest and most problematic division.

In the short term, ArcelorMittal’s recovery from the global economic slowdown has been slow. Although the trends in 2011 are mostly positive, operating earnings and the share price are both down about two-thirds from pre-crisis levels. In the long term, the younger Mr Mittal can do almost nothing about the most important variable in the steel industry – China

A significant slowdown in China would be a problem. But as long as the country continues its recent pace of development, its share of global steel demand will probably stay at around the current 45 per cent (by comparison, it consumes only 10 per cent of the world’s oil). In that case, the growth rate of global steel production could well stay at the 5 per cent it has registered for the last decade. The Mittals could continue to lead the industry in calibrating production to demand. They have been successful at this – losses were much lower in the recent recession than in earlier, milder declines.