We are drifting. We take comfort in bits of good news, but we are in dangerous waters; the Great Recession is being starkly revealed as a global crisis with the US, the traditional engine of recovery, sputtering on every cylinder. The US government responded with dramatic financial support by transferring money to the household sector. But outside of these transfers the personal income of Americans is still declining; the residential market remains stagnant at best; consumer growth is nominal. The only real energy in the economy has come from the cessation of inventory liquidation, which is now the main factor in rising industrial output and any modest improvement in the economy.
我們現(xiàn)在就如水中的浮萍一般。零星傳來的好消息令我們感到安慰，但實(shí)際上，我們正處在危險(xiǎn)的水域；事實(shí)明確無誤的表明，本次大衰退(Great Recession)是一場全球危機(jī)，而美國這個(gè)傳統(tǒng)上拉動(dòng)復(fù)蘇的引擎，每個(gè)汽缸都出現(xiàn)了故障。美國政府的應(yīng)對(duì)之舉是提供大規(guī)模財(cái)政支持，把財(cái)富轉(zhuǎn)移到家庭部門。但如果剔除掉這類轉(zhuǎn)移，美國人的個(gè)人收入仍在下降；住宅市場仍處在停滯狀態(tài)（這還是最樂觀的估計(jì)）；消費(fèi)增長更是低得可憐。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的唯一真正動(dòng)力，來自于清理庫存過程的中止——如今，它是推動(dòng)工業(yè)產(chǎn)出增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)小幅復(fù)蘇的主要因素。