Douse with paraffin, light taper, stand back. China's moratorium on initial public offerings is over: Guilin Sanjin, a traditional medicine maker, is the first cleared for lift-off. With the Shanghai Composite Index up 58 per cent in the year to date, the world is gagging for all things Chinese, not least stimulus spending, economic growth and now, Beijing hopes, IPOs. Nice idea. But Shanghai is a stop-go market at Beijing's whims.

Between mid-2005 and June 2006, when equities went sideways, the IPO market was shut. Reopened that summer and helped by reforms to non-tradable shares, the Chinese IPO market then quadrupled before peaking in October.

These are more sober times. Industrial profits are shrinking. Demand is slack. Foreigners may be gung-ho but they are bit players. The action hinges more on domestic sentiment that turns on a jiao.