Michael Buchanan, Asia chief economist at Goldman Sachs, says the dramatic fall in Chinese imports from other Asian countries in January shows that Chinese consumers have not replaced their US and European counterparts. Instead, he says a lot of intra-Asian trade still “smells a lot of just supply-chain dynamics” feeding exports to other regions.

In January, exports from Taiwan and South Korea to China fell by 50 per cent and 33 per cent year-on-year respectively. South Korea said yesterday its overall exports fell less rapidly in February than in January. But it will release only today a breakdown of shipments to China and elsewhere.

More bad news is expected to flow, at least until the second quarter, as most export-focused Asian companies cut jobs and manufacturing capacity because of anaemic western consumer demand. Government stimulus packages, heavily geared towards infrastructure spending, will only gradually help Asia recover, rather than act as an overnight cure.