Faced with an apparent pattern in any data, a key question is always: “Does this pattern represent something real, or is it just chance?” The simplest example: if I measure the heights of five men and five women and discover that the men tend to be taller than the women, I might be on to something, or I might just have some tall men and some short women in my sample. Based on this small sample, how confident should I be that men are in general taller than women?
面對任何數據中一種明顯的模式，一個關鍵問題始終是：“這種模式具有某種真實的意義，還是僅僅是偶然？”舉個最簡單的例子：如果我測量五男五女的身高，結果發現男人通常比女人高一些，那么我可能是發現了某種規律，也可能只是我的樣本中選取了一些高個男性和矮個女性。基于這種比較小的樣本，我是否應該確信男性一般都長得比女性高呢？
您已閱讀13%（622字），剩余87%（4023字）包含更多重要信息，訂閱以繼續探索完整內容，并享受更多專屬服務。