The tone of the remarks by Qin Gang, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, suggested real concern in Beijing that Hu Jia, an outspoken campaigner for the rights of people with Aids and other disadvantaged groups, is seen as a serious contender for this year's prize, which is to be announced today.

Such a choice by the Norwegian Nobel Committee would be a major public relations setback for the administration of Hu Jintao, Chinese president, which has been largely untroubled by international criticism of its treatment on dissidents and social activists in the last few years.

A crackdown on critics this year that was widely seen as being linked to the August Beijing Olympics drew little diplomatic protest. The jailing of Mr Hu for three years on subversion charges in April was seen by fellow activists as part of the pre-games crackdown.